Economic Themes (2008) 46 (3) 10, 151-164
Predrag Mimović
Abstract: Although all forecasting methods inherently include estimation they are commonly divided into two classes - class of statistical methods and class of estimating methods. An important part of forecasting relies on developing statistical techniques. However, in practice common sense and good judgement play dominant role. Moreover, the results obtained by using statistical techniques are often adjusted to conform with the opinion of an expert. A combination of estimation and quantitative techniques is often featuring estimating process where forecasting is revised by decision makers. In this paper we analyse the ability of AHP to improve forecasting potential relying on the process of estimation compatibility.
Keywords: forecasting; judgment; adjusting; ahp
ADJUSTING OF FORECASTS WITH THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
Predrag Mimović
Abstract: Although all forecasting methods inherently include estimation they are commonly divided into two classes - class of statistical methods and class of estimating methods. An important part of forecasting relies on developing statistical techniques. However, in practice common sense and good judgement play dominant role. Moreover, the results obtained by using statistical techniques are often adjusted to conform with the opinion of an expert. A combination of estimation and quantitative techniques is often featuring estimating process where forecasting is revised by decision makers. In this paper we analyse the ability of AHP to improve forecasting potential relying on the process of estimation compatibility.
Keywords: forecasting; judgment; adjusting; ahp
