Economic Themes (2010) 48 (1) 9, 117-130
Milica Radović
Abstract: The paper examines the possibility of a trend analysis method application in the stock market in Serbia. Technical analysis and trend concept primary thesis have been set forth. In the trend analysis a method of two moving averages as well as a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have been applied. A trend is an observed value direction of movement. Moving average is a method by which a course of a phenomenon is spotted and it shows a direction of its movement. The above mentioned moving averages identify the establishment of a trend, a stoppage of the existing one, a change and an establishment of the new one. One of the indicators that confirm the direction and give the first signals of a trend weakening is a MACD indicator. The author has analyzed a value movement dynamics of the Belgrade Stock Market common share index, i.e. Belexline trend from 1st March, 2006 to 31st March, 2009 by the application of two moving averages method: an intermediate term of 50 days and a long-term one of 100 days in the stock market in Serbia.
Keywords: capital market; corporations; prediction; Belexline; trend; moving averages; MACD
SERBIAN STOCK MARKET TREND ANALYSIS FROM 1st March, 2006 TO 31st March, 2009
Milica Radović
Abstract: The paper examines the possibility of a trend analysis method application in the stock market in Serbia. Technical analysis and trend concept primary thesis have been set forth. In the trend analysis a method of two moving averages as well as a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have been applied. A trend is an observed value direction of movement. Moving average is a method by which a course of a phenomenon is spotted and it shows a direction of its movement. The above mentioned moving averages identify the establishment of a trend, a stoppage of the existing one, a change and an establishment of the new one. One of the indicators that confirm the direction and give the first signals of a trend weakening is a MACD indicator. The author has analyzed a value movement dynamics of the Belgrade Stock Market common share index, i.e. Belexline trend from 1st March, 2006 to 31st March, 2009 by the application of two moving averages method: an intermediate term of 50 days and a long-term one of 100 days in the stock market in Serbia.
Keywords: capital market; corporations; prediction; Belexline; trend; moving averages; MACD
